Nintendo will seemingly be the “main accomplice for third-party recreation publishers” on console in 5 years, an analyst agency has forecast, by which period Change 2 may have hit 100m models offered.
A contemporary report on the approaching yr in video video games – and past – from veteran agency DFC Intelligence states that Nintendo is prone to beat its personal forecast for Change 2 gross sales this yr, albeit barely.
Nintendo has stated it expects to shift 15m Change 2 consoles earlier than thirty first March 2026, although DFC forecasts Nintendo will in actuality seemingly promote 16m – sufficient to say it has beat expectations. With provide chain enhancements, gross sales could possibly be even larger nonetheless – as many as 20m, DFC believes.
“Reflecting its traditionally conservative strategy to new product forecasting, Nintendo is estimating gross sales of 15m Change 2 models by way of the tip of its fiscal yr in March 2026,” DFC wrote in its report, shared with Eurogamer.
“When the unique Change launched in March 2017, Nintendo initially projected 10m models for the fiscal yr however in the end offered 15m models in that interval. Primarily based on that monitor file, the truth that Nintendo is forecasting a 15m unit quantity offers us confidence that they may have the ability to ramp up provide and navigate tariff challenges.”
With the delay of GTA 6 to 2026, the launch of Change 2 shall be this yr’s greatest driver of online game spending – significantly so in Japan, DFC expects, the place Nintendo has a competitively-priced native mannequin for that market.
Trying to the longer term, DFC says Change 2 will hit 100m gross sales by 2029 and be the main console system at the moment.
Each Sony and Microsoft have expressed curiosity in launching their very own handheld gadgets, and each corporations are additionally extensively anticipated to be prepping their very own subsequent residence consoles to reach from 2027 onwards. However Nintendo launching Change 2 now means it should have a number of years of headstart on PS6 and the subsequent Xbox.
“DFC forecasts that by the tip of 2029 the Change 2 may have offered over 100m models making it the main console system by a large margin,” the agency wrote. “The following few years might see Nintendo for the primary time changing into the first accomplice for third-party recreation publishers.”
For context, Change is at the moment on 152m gross sales after eight years. PlayStation 5 is on 74.9m after 4 and a half years. Xbox Sequence X/S is believed to be at round 30m models after the identical time interval, although Microsoft doesn’t launch official {hardware} figures.
Solely seven console platforms have handed 100m through the years, with greater than half from Nintendo: Recreation Boy/Shade, Nintendo DS, Wii, Change, PS1, PS2 and PS4.
PS2 stays the best-selling console of all time at round 160m models offered – although Change 1 is giving it a run for its cash, and now sits lower than 8m consoles away.
